Publications:

Presentation slides at NBER 2006 Summer Institute  

 

Working Papers:    

 

 

We argue that positive co-movements between land prices and business investment are a driving force behind the broad impact of land-price dynamics on the macroeconomy. We develop an economic mechanism that captures the co-movements by incorporating two key features into a DSGE model: We introduce land as a collateral asset in firms' credit constraints and we identify a shock that drives most of the observed fluctuations in land prices. Our estimates imply that these two features combine to generate an empirically important mechanism that amplifies and propagates macroeconomic fluctuations through the joint dynamics of land prices and business investment.

 

 

We present a model with heterogeneous firms, in which credit constraints may give rise to self-fulfilling, sunspot-driven business cycle fluctuations. We derive optimal incentive-compatible loan contracts, under which a firm's borrowing capacity is constrained by expected equity value. Interactions between debt and equity value made possible by credit constraints generate a credit externality, which leads to procyclical total factor productivity (TFP) and, with sufficiently high cost of financial intermediation, to equilibrium indeterminacy. At the aggregate level, the credit externality is observationally equivalent to production externality. Aggregate dynamics in our model with credit constraints and constant returns technology at the firm level are isomorphic to those in an aggregate economy with increasing returns, such as that studied by Benhabib and Farmer (1994).

 

 

Housing is an important component of the consumption basket. Since both rental prices and goods prices are sticky, the literature suggests that optimal monetary policy should stabilize both types of prices, with the optimal weight on rental inflation proportional to the housing expenditure share. In a two-sector DSGE model with sticky rental prices and goods prices, however, we find that the optimal weight on rental inflation in the Taylor rule is small---much smaller than that implied by the housing expenditure share. Since production of housing services uses the stocks of housing intensively, large fluctuations in the price of housing stocks lead to large adjustments in reset rental prices. This weak strategic complementarity in rental price setting calls for a small optimal weight on rental price inflation.

 

 

We examine the sources of macroeconomic economic fluctuations by estimating a variety of richly parameterized DSGE models within a unified framework that incorporates regime switching both in shock variances and in the inflation target. We propose an efficient methodology for estimating regime-switching DSGE models. Our counterfactual exercises show that changes in the inflation target are not the main driving force of high inflation in the 1970s. The model that best fits the U.S. time-series data is the one with synchronized shifts in shock variances across two regimes and the fit does not rely on strong nominal rigidities. We provide evidence that a shock to the capital depreciation rate, which resembles a financial shock, plays a crucial role in accounting for macroeconomic fluctuations.

 

 

This paper studies the empirical relevance of temptation and self-control using household-level data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey.  For this purpose, we construct an infinite-horizon consumption-savings model that allows, but does not require, temptation and self-control in preferences. To distinguish temptation preferences from others, we exploit individual-level heterogeneities in our data set, and we rely on an implication of the theory that a more tempted individual should be more likely to hold commitment assets. In the presence of temptation, the cross-sectional distribution of the wealth-consumption ratio, in addition to that of consumption growth, becomes a determinant of the asset-pricing kernel, and the importance of this additional pricing factor depends on the strength of temptation. The empirical estimates that we obtain provide statistical evidence supporting the presence of temptation. Based on our estimates, we explore some quantitative implications of this class of preferences for saving and economic growth and for the welfare cost of business cycles.

 

Download the paper: [Fed Minneapolis Staff Report 367] [a more recent version]

Presentation slides at Princeton (November 2006)  

 

 

Last updated: April 5, 2010