Publications:

Presentation slides at NBER 2006 Summer Institute  

 

Working Papers:    

 

This paper studies the empirical relevance of temptation and self-control using household-level data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey.  For this purpose, we construct an infinite-horizon consumption-savings model that allows, but does not require, temptation and self-control in preferences. To distinguish temptation preferences from others, we exploit individual-level heterogeneities in our data set, and we rely on an implication of the theory that a more tempted individual should be more likely to hold commitment assets. In the presence of temptation, the cross-sectional distribution of the wealth-consumption ratio, in addition to that of consumption growth, becomes a determinant of the asset-pricing kernel, and the importance of this additional pricing factor depends on the strength of temptation. The empirical estimates that we obtain provide statistical evidence supporting the presence of temptation. Based on our estimates, we explore some quantitative implications of this class of preferences for saving and economic growth and for the welfare cost of business cycles.

 

Download the paper: [Fed Minneapolis Staff Report 367] [a more recent version]

Presentation slides at Princeton (November 2006)  

 

 

We study the sources of the Great Moderation by estimating a variety of medium-scale DSGE models that incorporate regime switches in shock variances and in the inflation target. The best-fit model, the one with two regimes in shock variances, gives quantitatively different dynamics in comparison with the benchmark constant-parameter model. Our estimates show that three kinds of shocks accounted for most of the Great Moderation and business-cycle fluctuations: capital depreciation shocks, neutral technology shocks, and wage markup shocks. In contrast to the existing literature, we find that changes in the inflation target or shocks in the investment-specific technology played little role in macroeconomic volatility. Moreover, our estimates indicate much less nominal rigidities than those suggested in the literature.

Last updated: March 9, 2009