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My research has been focused along two lines. The first, more
methodological line studies the relationship between theory and
empirical modeling. The focus of this work has been (broadly speaking)
on ensuring that a statistical model is correctly specified and
properly interpreting the results of that model. The second line
concerns the nexus between institutions and behavioral/psychological
forces in determining political choices, particularly in the context of
American politics; much of the work in this second line is experimental
in nature. These two lines of research are often quite closely
integrated: substantive interests create methodological quandaries, and
novel theoretical structures imply novel methodological
approaches.
Esarey,
Justin, Timothy C. Salmon, and Charles Barrilleaux. 2011. “Social Insurance
and Income Redistribution in a Laboratory Experiment.” Political
Research Quarterly online first. [journal]
[supplement] [errata and alternative analysis] Esarey,
Justin, Timothy C. Salmon, and Charles Barrilleaux. 2011. “What Motivates
Political Preferences? Self-Interest, Ideology, and Fairness in a
Laboratory Democracy.” Economic Inquiry online first. [journal] Berry, William, Jacqueline H.
Demeritt, and Justin Esarey. 2010. "Testing for Interaction in Binary
Logit and Probit Models: Is a Product Term Essential?" American Journal of Political
Science 54(1):248-266. [journal]
Ahn,
TK, Justin Esarey, and John Scholz. 2009. "Reputation and Cooperation
in
Voluntary Exchanges: Comparing Local and Central Institutions.” Journal of Politics
71(2): 398-413. [journal]
Ahn, TK, and Justin Esarey. 2008. "A
Dynamic Model of Generalized Social Trust." Journal of
Theoretical Politics 20: 151-180. [journal]
[supplement]
Esarey, Justin, Bumba Mukherjee, and
Will H. Moore. 2008. "A Fixed-Effects Bayesian Quantal Response
Estimator for Incomplete Information Games." Political
Analysis 16: 250-273. [journal]
Esarey, Justin, and Andrew Pierce. "A New Model Specification and Fit Assessment Statistic
for Binary Dependent Variable Models." Revise and Resubmit at Political Analysis. [pdf] [software] Berry, William, Jacqueline H. Rubin,
and Justin Esarey. "Testing for Interaction Using Binary Logit
in the Presence of Specification Ambiguity." Revise and Resubmit at American Journal of Political Science. [pdf]
Justin Esarey (PI). Emory University
Research Committee Grant: “A Formal Test of Substantive Significance.”
$15,400.
Charles Barrilleaux (PI), Tim Salmon
and Justin Esarey (Co-PIs.) National Science Foundation Grant #0720055:
"Explaining Preferences for Social Insurance and Redistribution in a
Laboratory Democracy," 2007-2009. $108,000.
Esarey, Justin, and Jacqueline H. R. Demeritt. "State-dependent Dynamic Systems: A Model and
Application to "Naming and Shaming" for Human Rights Abuses." [pdf] Esarey, Justin. "A Formal Test for
Substantive Significance Using Bayesian Statistical Decision Theory." [pdf]
[software]
Esarey,
Justin, and Nathan Danneman. "Formal Tests of Substantive
Significance for Linear and
Non-Linear Models." [pdf]
Esarey, Justin, and Gina Chirillo.
"Taking Charge: Can Women Fix Corruption in Any Political Context?"
Calvo, Ernesto, Clifford Carrubba, and
Justin Esarey. "Strategic Selection Models with Systematically Correlated
Errors."
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